Hello my friends..
Those that decipher my previous article on NFL coaching changes during 2011 also got to bone up forward my thoughts on two teams to watch aloud for that might very well surprise for the period of the upcoming season when it comes to projected uniform season wins, the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos. Below you leave find my overall final list of teams that I expect to either surpass or fall succinct of the posted Vegas regular make palatable win totals.
CLEVELAND: I won't gain too detailed with the Brownies in this branch as I have already wrote some in-depth piece on them in my antecedent article, however, with that being afore~ I will indeed lay out a scarcely any reasons WHY I fully expect the Brownies to outrun 6.5 wins. First of wholly, a glance at the final SOS (fortitude of schedule) from last season reveals that Cleveland actually faced the NFLs third toughest slate of games in the same proportion that evidenced by the fact that the Browns sixteen opponents from remain year combined to finish with a charming percentage of .564.
Against last years opponents Cleveland managed to vilify a record of 5-11 rectilinear up and 5-10-1 ATS, a closer complexion-see reveals that five of the Brownies eleven close. up losses were by six or inferior points and lets not forget that Cleveland went into New Orleans and whipped the Saints 30-17, defeated the Patriots 34-14, and gave the Jets altogether they wanted before losing 20-26.
This year the Brownies are tied by three other teams (Oakland, Giants, Atlanta) since the 19th toughest schedule, in other logomachy, Cleveland is going from playing the 3rd toughest catalogue last year to having the 19th toughest catalogue this year, is asking Cleveland to get the compliance of two additional games this year against last year all that much? I don't think so and especially while considering that Cleveland will get to put a ~ the weak NFC West this taint in road games at San Francisco and Arizona and enjoin also have fairly easy home dates in anticipation of the likes of Tenny, Miami, Seattle, St Louis, and Jacksonville.....OVER 6.5 normal season wins.
DENVER: The Broncos are the other team that I wish already profiled in my previous point, like Cleveland, I fully expect Denver to surpass the projected regular season win complete of 6 that Vegas has unyielding for them. However, unlike the Brownies who take an easier schedule this year versus last year, these Broncos actually bear a tougher slate of games this year versus last year.
Denver finished last year with an overall mark of 4-12 vertical up and were 5-10-1 ATS, the Broncos faced the NFLs 23rd toughest table last year (.488) as computed ~ the agency of league final win/loss results. This year the Broncos are tied with five other teams (Indy, Jags, KC, SD, and Det) conducive to the right to have the leagues 3rd toughest slate of games. So if the Broncos only won four games utmost year with the 23rd rated schedule, what is it that makes me deem they will equal or surpass 6 wins this year through a tougher schedule?
Without getting too in-depth here (read my other moment) with regard to the changes that esteem taken place in Denver, let it content to say that having a of recent origin sheriff in town (John Fox) disposition make all the difference as Denver ruined four games last year by seven or inferior points due to fielding a defense that gave up a prodigy 471 points on the season, that needless to say was the most points allowed by any team. Look as being defensive-minded skipper John Fox to accept the cure for what ailed last seasons 32nd ranked defense.
In the haughty picture Vegas isn't stupid, the superiority maker knows Denver faces a tougher slate of games this year against last year, he knows that Denver merely won four games last year limit yet he sets Denvers regular become ~ed win total this year at 5.5 excepting that to have the sharps almost immediately take the include up to 6. New Skipper John Fox likes to wave a more conservative game by running the ball more and playing strong defense, this come near by itself will surely help the Broncos turnover border from last season (- 9) and could shabby the difference in a couple of stop games.....OVER 6 regular season wins.
MINNESOTA: The Vikings are some of eight teams this season to accept a new skipper directing traffic, still, new HC Leslie Frazier with Minny, lengthwise with new HC Jason Garrett instead of Dallas, are the only two modern guys that were actually interim HC gripe-overs from last season when Minnesota and Dallas the couple fired their headmen prior to the inference of the regular season. This mode that both Frazier and Garrett force of ~ have a leg up on the other recently made known skippers and especially when it comes to actor relations and scheme implementation.
What I epigrammatic out above really doesn't be seized of diddly to do with how both team will actually perform within their have division because no other team not beyond the Vikings or Cowboys division had a acme coaching change. The time and fortified post to take advantage of head coaching changes should exist based on what spread Vegas places put ~ events that involve teams with renovated skippers. Never lose sight of the actuality that its all about public PERCEPTION.
Joe Public sees a Viking team that qualified last year with an overall evidence of 6-10 straight up and 5-10-1 ATS, ole Joe views the Vikings to the degree that a team influx with regard to finally years very distracting Favre saga and the final goodbye to HC Brad Childress preceding to the seasons end. Ole Joe sees this year the Vikings command have no Favre, no QB Tarvaris Jackson, ~t one WR Sidney Rice, and no DT Pat Williams. Ole Joe is intemperate habits the media koolaid and hearing entirely the hoopla of how the Vikings divisional rivals faculty of volition be sooooooo good this year through regard to Green Bay probably going to arrive back to back Super Bowls, of how both the Bears and Lions are teams to be directed out for.
Yada yada yada...I in addition see a Viking team that was in agitation last year, however, I also understand a Viking team that won 13 games the moderate prior and was a Favre interception let us go. in OT from going to the Super Bowl. I look a pretty good veteran QB in Donovan McNabb donning purple who has affair in Minny that he did not require in either Philly or Washington and that is a bonafide upper pinafore running back to hand the round body off to which will make the antagonistic team respect the play action sur~ly game even more.
Last season the Vikings faced the leagues eighth toughest document and this year are tied with Miami and Houston for having the NFLs tenth toughest schedule based on opponents wins/losses from after all the rest year. With all the turmoil going on last year Minny still managed to put in the ~-office a record of 6-10 by three of their losses by five or in a ~ degree points and what I like chiefly is the fact that Minny managed to overmaster everything, with regard to the Favre passage out and the ouster of HC Childress, to proceed 3-3 straight up coming the floor the stretch which is something to figure on.
The Vikings three seasonal catch tallies prior to last season were 13, 10, and 8 games that is an average of 10.3 wins by year, if we include last years spring in a four year average we be attentive that Minny still averaged over 9 wins a year in a four year cross and was a playoff team in 2008 and 2009. There is habitude too much talent and pride up~ the body this Viking team to not scarceness to rebound from last year, await for new QB McNabb to patronize the ball better and improve attached Minnys -11 turnover ratio from continue year.....OVER 7 regular season wins.
NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots had a darn social season last year in finishing with an overall mark of 14-3 near up and 10-6-1 ATS, still, if the truth be told a assign of New Englands success last period was built on simply having the straight bounces at the right time going their path with regard to finishing the spell with an almost unheard of mega +28 turnover rim.
I wanted to see how teams historically bring forth performed the next season following a tinge like New England had with regard to finishing through +18 or more in turnover verge and found some startling results. For copy, since 1990 there have been a lump of 19 NFL teams to bring to an end with a turnover margin of +18 or additional, 14 of those 19 teams went attached to win less games the following accustom, meanwhile, three teams had a preferable record and two teams had the sort record as the previous year.
Wanting to make useless distinctions the results a little further I went back and checked forward how teams fared the following accustom after finishing with +20 or more turnovers in a season, I place that over the same span from the time of 1990 there have only been 8 NFL teams to bring to an end with a +20 or more turnover fixed relation. All eight teams that finished with a +20 ratio lost more games the next season and 4 of the 8 teams accomplished with a record of 8-8 the next season and here's the kicker...none team since 1990 that had a +20 turnover ratio or more has gone on to win more than 10 games the next season.
New England won a entire of 14 games last season, nevertheless, four of their fourteen wins were by four or less points. The Patriots command find the going a little tougher this temper with out of division road games at improved Oakland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Denver similar to well as home dates against San Diego, Dallas, Giants, and Colts. New England usually fields one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and this year be inclined be no different, however, that doesn't make different the fact that this is a one that is getting a little protracted in the tooth.
To add more depth along the offensive line considered in the state of well as to start transitioning to of recent origin members, the Patriots drafted OT Nate Solder through of Colorado in the first make spherical with the 17th overall pick and soon afterward snagged former TCU Horned Frog OG Marcus Cannon by the 138th overall pick. If against some reason Patriot QB Tom Brady goes into disrepute and misses any game time the Patriots force of ~ be forced to go with third year undrafted free agent back up Brian Hoyer which would not be a good coalition with a New England defense that accomplished last season ranked a shoddy 25th overall and 30th opposite to the pass..translation is that New England indispensably to score to protect their defense and whether Brady goes down I don't compass Hoyer has Tom Bradys skill determined.....UNDER 11.5 regular season wins.
ATLANTA: The Falcons won the NFC South endure season after finishing 13-3 for the period of the regular season, Atlanta also earned a principal round bye and homefield advantage in favor of last years playoff round, however, that didn't support them one iota as Green Bay came to Atlanta and exposed the Falcons in a 48-21 cudgelling that wasn't even as finish as the score might indicate in the same proportion that Green Bay had more first downs 28 to 15, in addition total yards 442 to 194, and won the TOP (time of state of being possessed) battle by a whopping 38:19 to 21:41 strife.
Atlanta was an enigma last year to the degree that they somehow managed to finish 13-3 through the NFLs 14th ranked toughest slate of games, nevertheless, a closer look-see reveals that these Falcons new wine have had lady luck shining steady them all season long with regard to lovely six games by 6 or ~ amount points and doing so with a between the extremes of the pack offense and a something intermediate of the pack defense that both finished with a middle of the put together 16th overall ranking. Final regular prepare statistics show that the Falcon offense averaged 341.19 whole yards per game while the Falcon defense allowed steady average 332.44 total yards by means of outing.
How does a team gain the victory 13 games during the regular imbue when their offense only gains 8.75 greater quantity yards per game on average than their defense allows? By acquisition the bounces, thats how. Atlanta perfected the regular season with a +14 turnover ratio which allowed them to win games they with appearance of truth should have lost. During their opening playoff game last year against Green Bay these Falcons didn't make acquisition the bounces as they lost the T/O battle 4 to 1 and got smoked 48-21.
Divisional rival New Orleans should re-take this section this season, the Tampa Bay Bucs are in successi~ the rise after posting a 10-6 take down last year, however, Tampa Bay was one more team that had lady luck glittering on them with regard to having exactly moiety their wins (five wins) coming through 3 or less points and finishing by a +9 in T/O proportion. Carolina has to improve on a 2-14 spell as they have nowhere to fare but up. The Falcons have tough with~ of division road games at Chicago, at Detroit, at Indy, and at Houston at the same time with tough out of division games while they host Philly, Green Bay, and Minnesota. I truly can't see these Falcons bewitching any more than nine games this be ~ed.....UNDER 10.5 regular season wins.
Take care and subsist well my friend.
Jim
No comments:
Post a Comment